He's shown this on numerous occasions, but one occasion that's stood out for a while to me is a touchdown he scored against the Baltimore Ravens in the preseason last year. Lined up in the slot to the wide side of the field, he was set to run a reverse pivot route. It is designed as an out route that has the receiver reverse outside and come back to the middle of the field.
For this play to work, the in-line tight end would have to clear out the middle linebacker by running an out-and-up route. However, one threat to the success of the play would be outside linebacker Paul Kruger circled.
When the play begins, Amendola makes a round cut as he releases to the outside. Simultaneously, the tight end draws the attention of Kruger and the middle linebacker before breaking for the end zone. Then, Amendola plants his inside foot in the ground and looks to change direction toward the middle of the field. He starts to run full speed parallel to the line of scrimmage and, as usual, is aggressive in attacking the thrown football.
He catches the ball right in front of Kruger and turns into the end zone for six points. This type of route is what he and Welker excel at. They do a very good job of finding the soft spot in zone coverage and, when faced with man coverage, running away from the defender. Because of the way the Patriots' offense is designed, with the slot receiver running routes that are crafted for maximum yards after the catch opportunities, Amendola could do severe damage to defenses. While the two have similarities in the underneath area, they're not entirely similar vertically.
Amendola is a bigger target at 5'11" and a better vertical threat. The release of Aaron Hernandez , who averaged another 6. On top of all that, the injury concerns with Rob Gronkowski raise the chances of a Welker-like number of targets even higher.
The potential role that Amendola may inherit in the Patriots' offense is quite substantial and the following table details how that high usage would translate into fantasy football production:.
Firstly, I erred on the side of caution and used Welker's career catch-rate even though I believe Amendola will record a higher rate. Additionally, I felt that Welker's career YPR and touchdown rate would be more indicative of Amendola's future than his own rates from a much more anemic offense, which is why those numbers were used as well.
Also, you'll notice that the range for Amendola is much wider; it stretches from targets to targets, which still doesn't reach the insane targets that Welker averaged over the last two seasons. Quite simply, Amendola should find himself in a familiar role, which limits the amount of adjustments he'll have to make, on a more potent offense. His health, rather than the process of adapting to his new surroundings, will be the biggest factor in determining his target totals.
According to Footballguys. The Experts Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros exhibits a slightly lesser disparity, ranking Welker as the 19th receiver and Amendola as the 24th receiver.
With all that being said, it's not surprising that Welker's renown has kept his ADP ahead of Amendola's. However, when comparing the projection ranges for the two receivers, the highest ranges for Welker barely overlap the lower ranges for Amendola.
When it comes down to fantasy football in , I unquestionably prefer Amendola to Welker. By Kyle Wachtel. Dominate Your League A Footballguys Premium Subscription will give you the edge with lineup and waiver wire advice tailored to your league.
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